Well, OK, not quite in full. But partly in full:
| Party | Share of vote predicted by party | Actual share of vote achieved |
|---|---|---|
| English Democrats | ``Please, please be my [guest] in taking the michael if we don't poll between 6%-8% at the Euro Elections announced on 13 June 2004.'' | 0.8% |
So, that seems to be all of the good news from the European elections. As Anthony Wells points out, the results might even mean that the European Constitution isn't killed dead -- it will be pretty easy for the government to paint any `no' campaign as a bunch of loons and nutters if the UKIP are involved in it.
Elsewhere, Matthew Turner draws our attention to what he says were UKIP supporters reacting to a defeat while others celebrated their victory. Actually I think he's jumping the gun there; the 400 Croydon rioters could equally well have been supporters of the BNP or the National Front. Couldn't have been supporters of the English Democrats though -- there were too many of them....
Comments
Posted by Joe, Monday, 21 June 2004 19:17 (link):
Chris,
I have read with some interest the various postings relating to the European Elections. Given the impression that UKIP seem to have made upon the electorate and within the context of a low turnout, what impact would you expect Mr. Kilroy-Silk and his merry men to have in a general election? Realistically, whilst they could most certainly harness their current popularity and increase their share of the popular vote, will they win any seats?
Thanks
Joe
Posted by Chris Lightfoot, Monday, 21 June 2004 23:05 (link):
Well, my guess is `no', on the basis that the first-past-the-post electoral system doesn't exactly favour a sectional interest like UKIP. But it may be that they have localised support in certain areas, and perhaps Kilroy-Silk (who has, I think, ruled out standing in a by-election but not in a general election) might mount an effective campaign. But basically that's all guesswork, and a lot could happen before the next election.
Posted by Roger Sanchez, Saturday, 26 June 2004 21:23 (link):
Ukip would be a causal interest group if you are to describe them as one. Also they may gain a few seats in Westminister if voters think they are better placed to beat Labour in a seat than the Tories. For example in Kilroy stood in his heartland were he maybe polled 30% and people considered the Tories to be worst placed than Ukip they might all defect. Also in Europhile seats like that basterd Ken Clarke they might do well. They might take his seat or hand it over to labour. However the biggest affect will be in share of the vote. If they poll like even just 7% nationally this would really piss the Tories off and there next leader might be Eurosceptic enough to stand on the sensible platform of pulling out.
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